Betting Lines
| Spread | MISS -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | MISS -525 USM +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MISS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MISS +17 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | MISS -10.1 (+6.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.4 (+25.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MISS -8.8 (+8.2) | 140.0 (+21.0) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MISS -11.0 (+6.0) | 140.1 (+20.9) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MISS -10.8 (+6.2) | 141.8 (+19.2) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MISS -10.6 (+6.4) | 141.1 (+19.9) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 13, 2025 | MISS 71 – 67 USM |
| Dec 14, 2024 | MISS 77 – 46 USM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MISS | USM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 9-9 |
| Home | 14-4 | 11-3 |
| Away | 4-7 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 69.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.9 | 72.9 |
| Massey | 4.9 (#93) | -5.2 (#264) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.13 (#2) | -0.08 (#189) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.22 (#5) | -0.54 (#224) |
| RPI | 0.625 (#22) | 0.462 (#241) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MISS | USM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 41.8% |
| 3PT% | 39.2% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.48 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 47.7% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 29.2% | 32.4% |
| FT Rate | 25.3% | 24.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.0% | 53.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 65.3% | 67.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.5% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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