Betting Lines
| Spread | UVU -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | UVU -245 UCSB +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVU +15 | 121 | Won |
| Massey | UVU -10.0 (+5.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.0 (-38.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVU -6.7 (+8.3) | 144.1 (-23.1) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVU -9.0 (+6.0) | 147.9 (-26.9) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVU -8.4 (+6.6) | 149.8 (-28.8) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVU -6.8 (+8.2) | 147.9 (-26.9) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVU | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-9 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 11-9 |
| Home | 15-1 | 11-4 |
| Away | 6-7 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.7 | 76.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.8 | 73.7 |
| Massey | 10.3 (#54) | 0.3 (#165) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.04 (#103) | 0.76 (#124) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.05 (#73) | 0.82 (#130) |
| RPI | 0.591 (#56) | 0.529 (#126) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVU | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.4% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 38.4% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.5% | 53.5% |
| TOV% | 21.7% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 32.9% | 34.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 37.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 54.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.4% | 36.0% |
Game Analysis
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