Betting Lines
| Spread | CLEM -22.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | CLEM -2400 MER +1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CLEM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CLEM +7 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | CLEM -19.4 (-12.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.3 (-23.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CLEM -22.4 (-15.4) | 154.6 (-21.6) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CLEM -17.2 (-10.2) | 151.7 (-18.7) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CLEM -18.6 (-11.6) | 152.7 (-19.7) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CLEM -19.5 (-12.5) | 153.9 (-20.9) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CLEM | MER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 11-7 |
| Home | 13-3 | 14-1 |
| Away | 6-5 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.8 | 80.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.7 | 77.8 |
| Massey | 15.6 (#25) | 0.9 (#155) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.85 (#56) | 1.51 (#72) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.60 (#61) | 1.74 (#90) |
| RPI | 0.569 (#70) | 0.541 (#114) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CLEM | MER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 41.9 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 13.7 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.74 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 13.3% | 15.2% |
| ORB% | 37.5% | 31.3% |
| FT Rate | 29.7% | 27.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.1% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 73.6% | 63.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.6% | 19.6% |
Game Analysis
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