Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -16.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | PUR -2100 MARQ +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +20 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | PUR -23.3 (-3.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.1 (-17.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -17.6 (+2.4) | 151.0 (-13.0) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -21.1 (-1.1) | 149.1 (-11.1) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -22.9 (-2.9) | 151.0 (-13.0) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -25.1 (-5.1) | 151.5 (-13.5) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 20, 2024 | MARQ 76 – 58 PUR |
| Nov 22, 2023 | PUR 78 – 75 MARQ |
| Nov 16, 2022 | PUR 75 – 70 MARQ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PUR | MARQ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-9 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 7-13 |
| Home | 12-5 | 10-7 |
| Away | 8-3 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 10-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.6 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 75.8 |
| Massey | 19.7 (#12) | 1.1 (#152) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.08 (#8) | -0.80 (#248) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 6.45 (#7) | -1.09 (#245) |
| RPI | 0.666 (#12) | 0.444 (#269) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PUR | MARQ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.2% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 40.3% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 40.6 | 38.5 |
| OREB / G | 13.6 | 13.3 |
| AST / TO | 2.04 | 1.37 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.9% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 42.0% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 20.9% | 27.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 20.5% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.6% | 24.3% |
Game Analysis
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