Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | MARQ +115 PUR -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MARQ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +3 | 153 | Lost |
| Massey | PUR -4.9 (+1.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.0 (-2.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 64% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MARQ -0.1 (-3.1) | 146.1 (+6.9) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -1.9 (-1.1) | 148.2 (+4.8) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -2.0 (-1.0) | 146.0 (+7.0) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -1.1 (-1.9) | 149.3 (+3.7) | 34% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 13, 2025 | PUR 79 – 59 MARQ |
| Nov 20, 2024 | MARQ 76 – 58 PUR |
| Nov 16, 2022 | PUR 75 – 70 MARQ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MARQ | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-10 | 34-5 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 17-3 |
| Home | 14-2 | 16-0 |
| Away | 7-5 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 11-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.1 | 82.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.8 | 69.0 |
| Massey | 13.3 (#18) | 18.2 (#7) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.46 (#6) | 2.92 (#18) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.29 (#7) | 4.74 (#13) |
| RPI | 0.755 (#9) | 0.764 (#8) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MARQ | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.2% | 51.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 41.7% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 41.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.85 | 1.66 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.9% | 59.2% |
| TOV% | 11.7% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 26.3% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 19.9% | 27.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.9% | 40.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 73.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.6% | 7.0% |
Game Analysis
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