Betting Lines
| Spread | MARQ -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | MARQ -225 PUR +185 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MARQ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MARQ +18 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | MARQ -13.4 (+4.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.6 (-21.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MARQ -11.5 (+6.5) | 145.4 (-11.4) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MARQ -13.2 (+4.8) | 148.1 (-14.1) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MARQ -15.2 (+2.8) | 150.8 (-16.8) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MARQ -14.5 (+3.5) | 150.6 (-16.6) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 13, 2025 | PUR 79 – 59 MARQ |
| Nov 22, 2023 | PUR 78 – 75 MARQ |
| Nov 16, 2022 | PUR 75 – 70 MARQ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MARQ | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 24-12 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 13-7 |
| Home | 14-3 | 14-2 |
| Away | 7-6 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 4-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.6 | 77.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 70.4 |
| Massey | 13.8 (#18) | 7.3 (#66) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.76 (#2) | 1.80 (#53) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 6.35 (#2) | 3.05 (#40) |
| RPI | 0.734 (#13) | 0.590 (#85) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MARQ | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 52.9% |
| 3PT% | 30.4% | 46.0% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.78 | 1.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 62.0% |
| TOV% | 12.6% | 15.2% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 28.2% |
| FT Rate | 28.2% | 30.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.4% | 14.6% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.0% | 16.3% |
Game Analysis
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