Betting Lines
| Spread | RICH -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | RICH -180 SIU +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RICH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | RICH +9 | 177 | Won |
| Massey | RICH -6.6 (+2.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.3 (+14.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | RICH -6.0 (+3.0) | 154.8 (+22.2) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | RICH -8.7 (+0.3) | 151.6 (+25.4) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | RICH -8.5 (+0.5) | 152.0 (+25.0) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | RICH -9.3 (-0.3) | 153.5 (+23.5) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RICH | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 10-10 |
| Home | 11-7 | 8-6 |
| Away | 3-8 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.5 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 70.5 |
| Massey | 6.6 (#87) | 4.7 (#112) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.04 (#44) | 0.61 (#134) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.56 (#18) | 0.64 (#141) |
| RPI | 0.554 (#91) | 0.523 (#136) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RICH | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.5% | 49.8% |
| 3PT% | 37.8% | 28.4% |
| REB / G | 39.8 | 38.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.38 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.3% | 53.6% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 32.7% |
| FT Rate | 32.7% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 75.7% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.1% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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