Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -29.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +18 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | UNC -21.7 (-3.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.1 (-7.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -23.2 (-5.2) | 149.9 (-7.9) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -18.1 (-0.1) | 143.5 (-1.5) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -19.3 (-1.3) | 143.3 (-1.3) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -19.6 (-1.6) | 146.2 (-4.2) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNC | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-9 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 5-11 |
| Home | 18-0 | 10-5 |
| Away | 4-6 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.7 | 71.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.6 | 75.7 |
| Massey | 15.1 (#28) | -1.9 (#193) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.53 (#13) | 0.10 (#169) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.36 (#11) | -0.44 (#200) |
| RPI | 0.644 (#16) | 0.495 (#182) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNC | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 30.9% |
| REB / G | 43.4 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.9 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.45 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 36.5% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 29.4% | 26.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.7% | 46.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.9% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.2% | 28.0% |
Game Analysis
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