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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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31–12 on winners spread MAE 9.3 43 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
The Citadel @ South Carolina +28.4 149.4 100% 55–71 ✓
Georgia Southern @ West Georgia +1.7 159.5 56% 91–85 ✗
Arizona State @ Santa Clara +3.5 155.6 62% 82–79 ✗
Stanford @ San José State -3.8 148.6 37% 86–82 ✓
North Florida @ Dayton +23.4 166.1 98% 61–84 ✓
Indiana @ Kentucky +2.9 155.2 60% 60–72 ✓
Michigan @ Maryland -29.7 155.5 0% 101–83 ✓
Rutgers @ Seton Hall +16.2 131.2 93% 59–81 ✓
Coastal Carolina @ Grand Canyon +10.9 136.3 84% 61–82 ✓
West Virginia @ Ohio State +3.5 140.1 62% 88–89 ✓
San Francisco @ Saint Louis +17.2 152.2 94% 75–85 ✓
SMU @ LSU +2.4 163.7 59% 77–89 ✓
UC Riverside @ BYU +26.4 153.2 99% 53–100 ✓
Arizona @ Alabama -2.2 177.3 42% 96–75 ✓
Pepperdine @ Cal State Bakersfield +2.3 143.7 58% 70–62 ✗
Tennessee State @ UNLV +8.5 167.0 78% 63–60 ✗
Mississippi State @ Utah -0.9 164.4 47% 82–74 ✓
Duquesne @ Nevada +12.5 163.6 87% 75–78 ✓
UCLA @ Gonzaga +16.3 146.4 93% 72–82 ✓
Tulane @ UC San Diego +14.0 158.5 90% 67–93 ✓
UTEP @ Hawai'i +16.2 129.5 93% 61–66 ✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Virginia Tech +25.8 140.6 99% 53–82 ✓
Saint Francis @ Temple +21.1 155.9 97% 67–95 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ Iowa State +41.0 150.4 100% 53–78 ✓
Texas Southern @ Minnesota +17.8 147.4 95% 53–89 ✓
Buffalo @ East Carolina -7.4 150.7 25% 70–73 ✗
Bethune-Cookman @ Missouri +17.2 154.6 94% 60–82 ✓
Merrimack @ Vermont +10.6 147.6 83% 59–66 ✓
High Point @ App State -14.9 149.8 9% 78–86 ✗
Monmouth @ Fairfield +0.5 152.9 52% 65–73 ✓
Ball State @ Campbell +11.7 142.5 86% 64–69 ✓
Indiana State @ Milwaukee +2.2 156.9 58% 70–68 ✗
Coppin State @ Radford +20.7 156.2 97% 77–107 ✓
Troy @ UAB +10.2 161.8 82% 86–85 ✗
Western Michigan @ Iowa +22.5 145.5 98% 51–91 ✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ New Mexico +17.2 167.0 94% 59–75 ✓
Charlotte @ Charleston +2.9 137.7 60% 67–74 ✓
Kent State @ Portland -2.2 173.7 42% 78–88 ✗
Queens University @ Wake Forest +17.0 172.3 94% 73–111 ✓
Detroit Mercy @ Purdue Fort Wayne +7.6 161.1 76% 77–81 ✓
Chicago State @ Loyola Chicago +5.7 151.5 70% 84–75 ✗
North Texas @ South Alabama +4.0 133.2 64% 58–57 ✗
Saint Mary's @ Boise State -2.4 135.9 42% 67–68 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.