Betting Lines
| Spread | SC -22.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | SC -5000 CIT +1800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SC +16 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | SC -28.1 (-12.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.7 (-24.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SC -24.0 (-8.0) | 147.6 (-21.6) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SC -23.7 (-7.7) | 146.4 (-20.4) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SC -26.7 (-10.7) | 146.4 (-20.4) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SC -27.3 (-11.3) | 145.5 (-19.5) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SC | CIT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 11-22 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 7-11 |
| Home | 11-8 | 7-8 |
| Away | 2-8 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 68.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.5 | 78.9 |
| Massey | 6.7 (#91) | -16.9 (#356) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.04 (#177) | -4.23 (#364) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.27 (#160) | -5.89 (#363) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#174) | 0.307 (#364) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SC | CIT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 29.1% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 31.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.66 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.1% | 47.8% |
| TOV% | 13.8% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 28.1% | 28.0% |
| FT Rate | 26.8% | 20.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.6% | 58.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.5% | 12.1% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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