Betting Lines
| Spread | NEV -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | NEV -285 DUQ +230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NEV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NEV +3 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | NEV -10.9 (-7.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.4 (-10.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NEV -11.6 (-8.6) | 151.5 (+1.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NEV -11.3 (-8.3) | 151.4 (+1.6) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NEV -11.3 (-8.3) | 152.3 (+0.7) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NEV -12.7 (-9.7) | 151.7 (+1.3) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NEV | DUQ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-13 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 9-9 |
| Home | 17-2 | 12-6 |
| Away | 4-9 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.0 | 76.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 75.9 |
| Massey | 5.6 (#104) | -0.8 (#176) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.44 (#75) | -0.04 (#185) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.97 (#76) | 0.01 (#173) |
| RPI | 0.611 (#38) | 0.484 (#201) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NEV | DUQ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 48.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.8% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 38.1 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.59 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.2% | 55.6% |
| TOV% | 13.5% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 34.4% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 33.9% | 28.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.2% | 32.7% |
Game Analysis
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