Betting Lines
| Spread | ECU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | ECU -122 BUF +102 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ECU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ECU +3 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | BUF -7.6 (+10.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.3 (-8.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 3% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BUF -4.8 (+7.8) | 139.7 (+3.3) | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BUF -5.8 (+8.8) | 141.3 (+1.7) | 25% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BUF -6.0 (+9.0) | 141.9 (+1.1) | 26% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BUF -7.8 (+10.8) | 140.2 (+2.8) | 26% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ECU | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-20 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 7-11 |
| Home | 7-10 | 7-8 |
| Away | 4-8 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.5 | 77.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.7 | 77.0 |
| Massey | -11.2 (#317) | 0.9 (#159) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.43 (#332) | 1.87 (#58) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.66 (#333) | 2.11 (#69) |
| RPI | 0.433 (#285) | 0.583 (#59) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ECU | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.8% | 47.5% |
| 3PT% | 27.4% | 38.9% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 29.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.79 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.2% | 56.3% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 33.0% | 27.2% |
| FT Rate | 27.5% | 39.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.7% | 53.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.2% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
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