Betting Lines
| Spread | UNM -15.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Under |
| Money | UNM -1800 FGCU +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNM +16 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | UNM -16.4 (-0.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 166.4 (-32.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNM -15.9 (+0.1) | 160.1 (-26.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNM -14.7 (+1.3) | 159.9 (-25.9) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNM -14.9 (+1.1) | 157.5 (-23.5) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNM -14.7 (+1.3) | 160.7 (-26.7) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNM | FGCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-11 | 16-18 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 8-10 |
| Home | 17-3 | 11-6 |
| Away | 7-5 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.8 | 76.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.6 | 78.0 |
| Massey | 9.1 (#69) | -2.9 (#212) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.45 (#33) | -0.82 (#247) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.50 (#35) | -0.34 (#194) |
| RPI | 0.634 (#21) | 0.454 (#258) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNM | FGCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 38.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 13.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 36.1% |
| FT Rate | 28.9% | 24.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 54.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.8% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.1% | 36.8% |
Game Analysis
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