Betting Lines
| Spread | VT -27.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | VT -10000 UMES +3000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VT +29 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | VT -25.7 (+3.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.5 (-6.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VT -20.4 (+8.6) | 143.7 (-8.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VT -20.6 (+8.4) | 141.7 (-6.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VT -22.6 (+6.4) | 141.3 (-6.3) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VT -22.0 (+7.0) | 141.6 (-6.6) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VT | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 5-9 |
| Home | 14-3 | 6-4 |
| Away | 3-7 | 2-18 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.8 | 62.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.9 | 71.5 |
| Massey | 9.7 (#62) | -11.5 (#321) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.28 (#41) | -2.38 (#330) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.98 (#48) | -3.90 (#339) |
| RPI | 0.632 (#22) | 0.428 (#295) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VT | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 27.9% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.72 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 46.2% |
| TOV% | 12.6% | 24.0% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 23.7% | 13.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 64.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.2% | 29.0% |
Game Analysis
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