Betting Lines
| Spread | WAKE -18.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 165.5 Over |
| Money | WAKE -2800 QUC +1300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WAKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WAKE +38 | 184 | Won |
| Massey | WAKE -16.9 (+21.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 171.3 (+12.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WAKE -16.5 (+21.5) | 159.6 (+24.4) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WAKE -15.5 (+22.5) | 159.9 (+24.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WAKE -15.0 (+23.0) | 157.7 (+26.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WAKE -19.3 (+18.7) | 157.5 (+26.5) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WAKE | QUC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-17 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 13-5 |
| Home | 13-7 | 12-2 |
| Away | 2-7 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.8 | 84.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.9 | 83.8 |
| Massey | 11.6 (#45) | -0.8 (#177) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.29 (#86) | -0.64 (#229) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.81 (#82) | -0.83 (#227) |
| RPI | 0.556 (#90) | 0.436 (#280) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WAKE | QUC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 48.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 37.4% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 13.3 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.36 | 1.52 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 57.3% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 35.9% | 32.9% |
| FT Rate | 25.2% | 23.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.5% | 13.5% |
| DRB% | 66.2% | 62.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.3% | 25.7% |
Game Analysis
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