Betting Lines
| Spread | USA -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | USA -120 UNT +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNT +1 | 115 | Lost |
| Massey | USA -4.8 (-5.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.5 (-18.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USA -3.0 (-4.0) | 134.5 (-19.5) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USA -3.9 (-4.9) | 136.4 (-21.4) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USA -4.1 (-5.1) | 135.9 (-20.9) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USA -5.1 (-6.1) | 134.7 (-19.7) | 69% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USA | UNT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 9-9 |
| Home | 10-4 | 12-5 |
| Away | 8-7 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.2 | 69.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 68.2 |
| Massey | -1.7 (#193) | -2.0 (#197) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.46 (#72) | -0.44 (#215) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.26 (#109) | -0.45 (#201) |
| RPI | 0.533 (#119) | 0.471 (#230) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USA | UNT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.35 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 13.9% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 27.7% | 31.2% |
| FT Rate | 27.1% | 30.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 45.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 66.5% | 67.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 11.9% | 35.0% |
Game Analysis
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