Betting Lines
| Spread | TEM -20.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | TEM -5000 SFPA +1800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TEM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TEM +28 | 162 | Won |
| Massey | TEM -22.3 (+5.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.0 (+5.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TEM -18.1 (+9.9) | 148.0 (+14.0) | 90% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | TEM -16.9 (+11.1) | 146.6 (+15.4) | 90% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | TEM -16.8 (+11.2) | 148.2 (+13.8) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TEM -18.1 (+9.9) | 148.3 (+13.7) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TEM | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 7-24 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 5-13 |
| Home | 10-6 | 5-8 |
| Away | 5-6 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.0 | 70.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 83.1 |
| Massey | -1.9 (#196) | -19.8 (#363) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.75 (#244) | -4.15 (#363) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.72 (#218) | -6.30 (#364) |
| RPI | 0.466 (#238) | 0.356 (#353) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TEM | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 38.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 30.6% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.38 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 44.4% |
| TOV% | 13.4% | 21.8% |
| ORB% | 29.0% | 26.3% |
| FT Rate | 34.4% | 15.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.3% | 60.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.4% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 65.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.4% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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