Betting Lines
| Spread | RAD -20.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | RAD -5000 COPP +1800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RAD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | RAD +30 | 184 | Won |
| Massey | RAD -18.6 (+11.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.6 (+27.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | RAD -15.7 (+14.3) | 153.2 (+30.8) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | RAD -14.1 (+15.9) | 146.1 (+37.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | RAD -15.4 (+14.6) | 147.4 (+36.6) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | RAD -15.9 (+14.1) | 149.1 (+34.9) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RAD | COPP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 7-24 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 5-9 |
| Home | 12-5 | 3-6 |
| Away | 4-8 | 4-15 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.9 | 64.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.8 | 81.0 |
| Massey | -8.5 (#302) | -22.7 (#364) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.04 (#346) | -3.23 (#350) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.41 (#349) | -5.10 (#355) |
| RPI | 0.388 (#335) | 0.367 (#350) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RAD | COPP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.1% | 38.0% |
| 3PT% | 29.3% | 27.9% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 31.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 0.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.0% | 42.6% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 22.0% |
| ORB% | 28.5% | 27.5% |
| FT Rate | 27.2% | 25.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.8% | 56.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 64.6% | 63.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.6% | 30.7% |
Game Analysis
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