Betting Lines
| Spread | MIZ -20.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | MIZ -3600 BCU +1500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIZ +22 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | MIZ -18.2 (+3.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.4 (-13.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIZ -21.8 (+0.2) | 144.4 (-2.4) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIZ -16.1 (+5.9) | 146.1 (-4.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MIZ -16.5 (+5.5) | 145.8 (-3.8) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIZ -15.9 (+6.1) | 145.9 (-3.9) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIZ | BCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 14-4 |
| Home | 15-3 | 10-1 |
| Away | 5-6 | 7-11 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L4 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.2 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.5 | 77.5 |
| Massey | 8.9 (#73) | -4.8 (#245) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.24 (#89) | -0.24 (#201) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.80 (#84) | -0.57 (#210) |
| RPI | 0.512 (#154) | 0.481 (#208) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIZ | BCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 53.3% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 37.4% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 38.7 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 60.2% | 47.5% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 39.5% | 28.9% |
| FT Rate | 28.2% | 19.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 14.6% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 63.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 29.0% |
Game Analysis
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