Betting Lines
| Spread | HAW -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | HAW -950 UTEP +625 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HAW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HAW +5 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | HAW -16.0 (-11.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.2 (-2.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HAW -11.4 (-6.4) | 131.4 (-4.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HAW -13.8 (-8.8) | 133.2 (-6.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HAW -14.8 (-9.8) | 131.1 (-4.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HAW -14.9 (-9.9) | 133.8 (-6.8) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HAW | UTEP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-9 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 7-13 |
| Home | 16-3 | 9-7 |
| Away | 6-5 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.7 | 66.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 72.7 |
| Massey | 5.8 (#98) | -5.7 (#260) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.70 (#125) | -2.13 (#321) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.37 (#105) | -2.81 (#317) |
| RPI | 0.492 (#187) | 0.462 (#246) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HAW | UTEP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 39.4% |
| 3PT% | 30.9% | 28.8% |
| REB / G | 41.0 | 26.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 0.72 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 44.8% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 33.7% | 23.5% |
| FT Rate | 35.8% | 17.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.9% | 54.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 22.3% |
| DRB% | 77.3% | 59.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.5% | 31.6% |
Game Analysis
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