Betting Lines
| Spread | DAY -30.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAY +23 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | DAY -22.8 (+0.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 166.3 (-21.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAY -20.2 (+2.8) | 157.0 (-12.0) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAY -18.8 (+4.2) | 155.0 (-10.0) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DAY -20.8 (+2.2) | 153.1 (-8.1) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAY -21.7 (+1.3) | 152.1 (-7.1) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAY | UNF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-12 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 5-13 |
| Home | 14-4 | 5-8 |
| Away | 8-5 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 77.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.3 | 89.6 |
| Massey | 6.3 (#94) | -12.0 (#331) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.41 (#78) | -3.50 (#354) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.75 (#87) | -4.86 (#353) |
| RPI | 0.579 (#63) | 0.374 (#344) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAY | UNF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 26.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 22.0% |
| ORB% | 26.2% | 20.3% |
| FT Rate | 35.1% | 17.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.1% | 55.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.5% | 15.3% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 51.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
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