We're only making plans for Nigel. "Making Plans for Nigel" - XTC
Knights Hall · December 13, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread NKU -4.5 Home covered
O/U 146.5 Over
Money BELL +180 / NKU -218
Model Predictions
Spread Total BELL win
Actual NKU +4 156 Lost
Massey NKU -0.4 (-3.6)
Massey Totals 154.5 (+1.5)
Bradley-Terry 41%
Weighted B-T 28%
Efficiency Plus ML NKU -5.0 (+1.0) 146.1 (+9.9) 30%
Baseline Tuned ML NKU -0.1 (-3.9) 148.4 (+7.6) 47%
Baseline ML BELL -0.3 (-4.3) 148.9 (+7.1) 48%
Baseline Plus ML NKU -0.1 (-3.9) 144.7 (+11.3) 49%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 30, 2024 NKU 8670 BELL

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings BELL NKU
Overall 13-19 20-14
Conference 7-11 10-10
Home 10-5 12-5
Away 2-13 7-8
Neutral 1-1 1-1
Last 5 2-3 4-1
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 78.9 80.9
Avg Pts Against 83.3 78.7
Massey -6.2 (#268) -1.1 (#180)
Bradley-Terry -1.00 (#258) 0.27 (#160)
W. Bradley-Terry -1.76 (#276) 0.24 (#161)
RPI 0.472 (#222) 0.495 (#183)
Shooting & Four Factors BELL NKU
FG% 49.7% 44.6%
3PT% 32.6% 33.9%
REB / G 23.3 32.6
OREB / G 5.0 12.6
AST / TO 1.05 1.13
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 56.2% 52.2%
TOV% 17.9% 18.9%
ORB% 17.5% 35.7%
FT Rate 26.9% 24.3%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 61.3% 56.3%
Opp TOV% 17.5% 22.8%
DRB% 63.4% 66.7%
Opp FT Rate 28.7% 32.9%

Game Analysis

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