Betting Lines
| Spread | ORST -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | ORST -125 MTST +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ORST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ORST +10 | 124 | Won |
| Massey | MTST -2.5 (+12.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.4 (-19.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ORST -0.4 (+9.6) | 142.2 (-18.2) | 52% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | ORST -1.1 (+8.9) | 142.6 (-18.6) | 61% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | ORST -1.0 (+9.0) | 140.6 (-16.6) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ORST -0.3 (+9.7) | 141.9 (-17.9) | 55% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ORST | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 12-6 |
| Home | 12-5 | 11-2 |
| Away | 4-7 | 6-11 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.1 | 75.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 73.5 |
| Massey | -3.8 (#234) | 3.4 (#121) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.60 (#225) | -0.78 (#246) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.85 (#230) | -0.70 (#221) |
| RPI | 0.465 (#233) | 0.484 (#201) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ORST | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 27.1% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 33.4% | 19.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 65.9% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.2% | 30.1% |
Game Analysis
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