Betting Lines
| Spread | COLO -22.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | COLO -8000 UTSA +2200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COLO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COLO +24 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | COLO -25.4 (-1.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.3 (-4.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COLO -18.8 (+5.2) | 151.8 (+0.2) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COLO -20.9 (+3.1) | 148.4 (+3.6) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | COLO -22.5 (+1.5) | 148.7 (+3.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COLO -22.5 (+1.5) | 152.7 (-0.7) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COLO | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 5-25 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 1-17 |
| Home | 13-5 | 2-12 |
| Away | 2-8 | 2-12 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.2 | 67.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.8 | 82.9 |
| Massey | 9.7 (#59) | -11.0 (#316) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.53 (#26) | -0.76 (#240) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.86 (#28) | -1.52 (#269) |
| RPI | 0.636 (#24) | 0.467 (#229) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COLO | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 52.1% | 35.3% |
| 3PT% | 41.0% | 27.3% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 38.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.83 | 0.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.1% | 41.9% |
| TOV% | 13.2% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 32.7% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 34.5% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.8% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.9% | 14.8% |
| DRB% | 73.8% | 63.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.4% | 25.6% |
Game Analysis
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