Some is rich and some is poor and that's the way the world is / And I don't believe in lying back and saying how bad your life is. "Bankrobber" - The Clash
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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45–25 on winners spread MAE 10.0 70 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Coppin State @ Towson +16.0 145.6 93% 67–83 ✓
UMBC @ UNC Greensboro +15.7 140.8 92% 72–76 ✓
UC San Diego @ George Washington +13.4 140.8 89% 75–70 ✗
Stonehill @ Fordham +13.5 154.3 89% 60–71 ✓
Vermont @ Yale +17.5 137.7 94% 44–73 ✓
Temple @ Richmond +2.5 141.4 59% 49–61 ✓
Southern Indiana @ St. Bonaventure +2.1 148.5 58% 66–80 ✓
Rider @ Rutgers +17.4 130.6 94% 46–76 ✓
Elon @ Jacksonville State +9.0 151.7 79% 53–78 ✓
Weber State @ Abilene Christian +0.8 120.3 53% 77–67 ✗
Northern Arizona @ UT Rio Grande Valley -0.7 153.1 47% 79–91 ✗
Florida Gulf Coast @ Drexel -1.1 124.6 46% 67–59 ✓
Nevada @ Kansas State +1.0 124.2 54% 87–96 ✓
Creighton @ Arkansas -5.2 136.2 32% 90–87 ✓
Marist @ Maryland Eastern Shore +7.6 135.7 75% 59–70 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ UTSA -2.4 129.7 41% 75–82 ✗
Louisiana @ SMU +0.3 149.1 51% 76–72 ✗
Pennsylvania @ Lafayette +4.3 130.6 65% 74–68 ✗
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Pittsburgh +4.4 162.5 66% 61–83 ✓
Liberty @ Northwestern +6.9 135.6 73% 52–66 ✓
Oral Roberts @ Utah State +10.0 157.9 82% 85–95 ✓
Alcorn State @ UTEP -1.2 129.0 46% 61–73 ✗
UAlbany @ Presbyterian +0.1 137.0 50% 68–65 ✗
Grambling @ Arizona State +21.5 142.9 97% 49–80 ✓
Syracuse @ St. John's +3.9 157.1 64% 69–76 ✓
Wright State @ UC Riverside +3.6 159.0 63% 65–70 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Pacific +13.8 168.2 90% 69–65 ✗
Sacramento State @ UC Davis +1.4 138.2 55% 71–82 ✓
San Diego State @ Arizona -4.6 176.6 34% 70–87 ✗
Northern Kentucky @ Toledo +8.1 148.3 77% 69–82 ✓
Illinois State @ Rhode Island -1.7 138.2 44% 44–57 ✗
Northern Illinois @ Long Island University -7.4 130.5 25% 86–61 ✓
American University @ Georgetown +9.2 143.2 80% 74–70 ✗
NC State @ Kansas -1.8 150.2 44% 74–80 ✗
Charlotte @ Detroit Mercy -1.5 132.2 45% 49–70 ✗
Eastern Michigan @ Winthrop +2.5 161.5 59% 87–101 ✓
Chicago State @ Cleveland State +10.2 133.5 82% 63–77 ✓
UT Arlington @ East Carolina +9.8 129.5 81% 65–79 ✓
Western Kentucky @ Tulane +1.8 145.9 57% 71–65 ✗
South Dakota @ Sam Houston +23.3 138.4 98% 49–80 ✓
Columbia @ Binghamton +13.3 140.8 89% 79–81 ✓
Radford @ William & Mary -4.1 149.8 35% 51–62 ✗
Texas Tech @ Ohio State +3.8 126.9 63% 73–80 ✓
Wisconsin @ Dayton -0.3 111.7 49% 43–42 ✓
Valparaiso @ Samford +20.1 138.6 97% 49–79 ✓
St. Thomas @ Milwaukee +1.1 139.7 54% 76–72 ✗
Morgan State @ Loyola Marymount +14.7 148.9 91% 80–81 ✓
The Citadel @ LSU New Orleans +8.0 146.5 77% 72–65 ✗
Cal State Northridge @ Central Michigan -1.3 138.8 45% 66–82 ✗
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Southern Miss +14.4 121.8 90% 58–70 ✓
Maine @ Central Connecticut -3.0 152.4 39% 66–58 ✓
McNeese @ Baylor +35.1 150.8 100% 60–89 ✓
North Florida @ Kentucky +23.9 152.3 99% 56–96 ✓
Jacksonville @ Campbell +20.3 125.7 97% 64–43 ✗
Wright State @ Weber State -6.4 152.6 28% 87–65 ✓
Lipscomb @ Chattanooga +9.7 139.1 81% 72–66 ✗
Creighton @ Arizona -4.9 175.1 33% 79–81 ✗
Drexel @ Indiana State +2.4 129.4 59% 81–85 ✓
Akron @ Nevada +7.5 129.0 75% 58–62 ✓
BYU @ USC -4.9 136.1 33% 76–82 ✗
Tennessee State @ High Point +3.3 145.8 62% 72–77 ✓
Denver @ IU Indianapolis -11.1 136.8 16% 86–64 ✓
Kent State @ Charleston -0.5 166.2 48% 72–74 ✗
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ Alcorn State +9.7 135.2 81% 98–67 ✗
Mississippi Valley State @ Air Force +15.6 125.7 92% 51–64 ✓
Bradley @ Liberty +0.3 148.4 51% 44–55 ✓
Marquette @ Georgia Tech -6.2 139.5 29% 84–60 ✓
Little Rock @ Indiana +33.4 164.8 100% 68–87 ✓
Abilene Christian @ UC Riverside +8.1 125.9 77% 65–76 ✓
St. Francis Brooklyn @ Miami +23.8 140.9 98% 56–79 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.