I had 'em all out there steppin' and fetchin' like their heads were on fire and their asses was catchin'. "The Ballad of Uneasy Rider" - Charlie Daniels
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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35–6 on winners spread MAE 8.5 41 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Idaho @ Cal Poly +4.4 122.0 65% 71–82 ✓
Stony Brook @ Florida International +11.0 142.7 84% 50–83 ✓
Evansville @ UCF +16.4 115.6 93% 56–76 ✓
Alabama State @ Duquesne +24.5 153.6 99% 57–75 ✓
UMass Lowell @ Brown -6.7 147.0 27% 73–62 ✓
App State @ East Tennessee State +9.9 136.9 82% 74–70 ✗
Merrimack @ Providence +13.7 136.9 89% 57–71 ✓
Coastal Carolina @ Missouri +16.1 164.6 93% 51–89 ✓
Butler @ Tennessee -4.2 132.0 35% 45–71 ✗
Louisville @ Cincinnati +7.9 132.8 76% 62–81 ✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ Kansas City -2.7 128.3 40% 73–59 ✓
LSU @ Kansas State +4.7 145.5 67% 59–61 ✓
Louisiana Tech @ Alabama A&M -5.1 160.5 32% 80–75 ✓
Idaho State @ Lindenwood +2.9 129.7 60% 76–77 ✓
Auburn @ Northwestern +2.4 123.0 59% 43–42 ✗
Utah @ Mississippi State +8.2 116.3 77% 49–52 ✓
Jackson State @ Michigan +13.6 152.6 89% 68–78 ✓
South Carolina State @ Wake Forest +19.8 152.1 96% 74–105 ✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ UTEP +7.0 119.7 74% 67–68 ✓
Fresno State @ Washington +3.2 126.6 62% 57–62 ✓
Arkansas @ San Diego State +0.9 139.9 53% 78–74 ✗
North Alabama @ UC Santa Barbara +9.5 132.1 81% 71–89 ✓
Pepperdine @ UCLA +11.4 143.0 85% 53–100 ✓
Minnesota @ UNLV +11.3 122.0 85% 62–71 ✓
Saint Mary's @ Vanderbilt -12.1 126.5 14% 75–65 ✓
California Baptist @ Southern Illinois +5.3 112.6 68% 61–64 ✓
Wisconsin @ Kansas +5.9 120.9 71% 68–69 ✓
Florida State @ Siena +1.3 145.5 55% 63–80 ✓
Manhattan @ Northeastern -6.9 134.9 27% 67–69 ✗
North Carolina @ Portland -1.0 149.0 46% 89–81 ✓
Ole Miss @ Stanford -2.4 134.5 41% 72–68 ✓
Tennessee @ USC -11.1 133.2 16% 73–66 ✓
Princeton @ Army -13.8 157.0 11% 74–66 ✓
Duke @ Oregon State -20.6 119.5 3% 54–51 ✓
IU Indianapolis @ LSU New Orleans +13.6 137.6 89% 84–87 ✓
Iowa State @ Villanova -9.3 124.5 20% 81–79 ✓
Dayton @ NC State +3.6 131.7 63% 64–76 ✓
Oklahoma @ Nebraska +0.1 118.9 50% 69–56 ✗
Florida @ Xavier +0.3 159.2 51% 83–90 ✓
The Citadel @ Denver +4.7 145.6 66% 71–74 ✓
Butler @ BYU -15.4 144.0 8% 75–70 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.