Betting Lines
| Spread | LT -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | AAMU +700 LT -900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AAMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LT +5 | 155 | Lost |
| Massey | LT -5.2 (+0.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.2 (-6.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 24% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 7% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LT -4.9 (-0.1) | 151.8 (+3.2) | 29% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LT -8.5 (+3.5) | 146.3 (+8.7) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LT -4.4 (-0.6) | 151.2 (+3.8) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LT -3.9 (-1.1) | 152.6 (+2.4) | 33% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AAMU | LT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 7-13 |
| Home | 9-8 | 9-6 |
| Away | 5-8 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-4 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.0 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.0 | 72.0 |
| Massey | -10.3 (#334) | 2.0 (#142) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.20 (#353) | -0.50 (#222) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -5.33 (#355) | -0.83 (#213) |
| RPI | 0.340 (#337) | 0.479 (#204) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AAMU | LT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.5% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 0.72 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.1% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 21.4% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 19.8% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.8% | 55.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.2% | 24.1% |
| DRB% | 61.6% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 35.5% | 25.0% |
Game Analysis
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