Betting Lines
| Spread | TENN -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TENN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TENN +26 | 116 | Won |
| Massey | BTLR -5.7 (+31.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.0 (-15.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 44% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BTLR -1.5 (+27.5) | 138.3 (-22.3) | 41% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TENN -1.8 (+24.2) | 134.4 (-18.4) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BTLR -2.5 (+28.5) | 135.8 (-19.8) | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BTLR -3.0 (+29.0) | 136.4 (-20.4) | 37% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TENN | BTLR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-11 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 6-14 |
| Home | 14-2 | 10-6 |
| Away | 4-6 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 7-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.8 | 65.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 57.9 | 67.9 |
| Massey | 9.7 (#39) | 15.3 (#11) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.33 (#156) | 0.57 (#133) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.05 (#126) | 0.92 (#132) |
| RPI | 0.529 (#143) | 0.533 (#134) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TENN | BTLR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.3% | 53.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 36.6% |
| REB / G | 38.7 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 13.7 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 1.51 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.3% | 60.0% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 34.7% | 25.8% |
| FT Rate | 32.8% | 16.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.6% | 47.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 27.6% | 26.1% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 81.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.4% | 9.0% |
Game Analysis
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