Betting Lines
| Spread | SMC -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 124.5 Over |
| Money | VAN +275 SMC -275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMC +10 | 140 | Lost |
| Massey | SMC -11.0 (+1.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.1 (+13.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMC -7.5 (-2.5) | 128.3 (+11.7) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMC -6.0 (-4.0) | 131.2 (+8.8) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMC -5.2 (-4.8) | 133.1 (+6.9) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMC -5.7 (-4.3) | 129.6 (+10.4) | 23% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 28, 2025 | VAN 96 – 71 SMC |
| Mar 21, 2025 | SMC 59 – 56 VAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAN | SMC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-15 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 14-2 |
| Home | 14-6 | 16-2 |
| Away | 5-6 | 6-2 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 70.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 60.0 |
| Massey | 2.7 (#127) | 13.6 (#18) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.13 (#171) | 3.19 (#12) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.17 (#168) | 5.40 (#7) |
| RPI | 0.541 (#123) | 0.718 (#7) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAN | SMC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 43.8% |
| REB / G | 39.8 | 42.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 1.32 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 14.6% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 36.5% |
| FT Rate | 10.4% | 17.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.2% | 41.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 76.2% | 84.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.4% | 14.4% |
Game Analysis
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