Betting Lines
| Spread | VAN -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | VAN -185 SMC +154 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAN +25 | 167 | Won |
| Massey | VAN -3.9 (+21.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.7 (+10.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VAN -2.7 (+22.3) | 150.1 (+16.9) | 59% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VAN -1.5 (+23.5) | 148.7 (+18.3) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VAN -0.9 (+24.1) | 150.4 (+16.6) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VAN -1.5 (+23.5) | 150.1 (+16.9) | 52% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 21, 2025 | SMC 59 – 56 VAN |
| Nov 24, 2022 | SMC 75 – 65 VAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAN | SMC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 27-6 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 16-2 |
| Home | 13-3 | 17-0 |
| Away | 8-4 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 85.7 | 76.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.0 | 65.2 |
| Massey | 17.6 (#12) | 13.7 (#30) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.07 (#4) | 3.44 (#12) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 6.28 (#4) | 5.28 (#11) |
| RPI | 0.607 (#46) | 0.703 (#6) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAN | SMC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 52.1% | 48.6% |
| 3PT% | 40.0% | 40.4% |
| REB / G | 40.9 | 41.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.99 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 61.6% | 55.6% |
| TOV% | 13.7% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 35.1% | 39.6% |
| FT Rate | 28.5% | 35.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.1% | 42.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 75.7% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 36.3% | 18.6% |
Game Analysis
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