Betting Lines
| Spread | SMC -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | SMC -200 VAN +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMC +3 | 115 | Won |
| Massey | SMC -3.4 (-0.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.8 (-22.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMC -6.0 (-3.0) | 131.1 (-16.1) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMC -4.1 (-1.1) | 132.7 (-17.7) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMC -4.7 (-1.7) | 128.4 (-13.4) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMC -4.0 (-1.0) | 130.4 (-15.4) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 28, 2025 | VAN 96 – 71 SMC |
| Nov 24, 2022 | SMC 75 – 65 VAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMC | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-6 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 17-1 | 8-10 |
| Home | 16-1 | 14-3 |
| Away | 9-1 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.7 | 78.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.8 | 74.3 |
| Massey | 15.6 (#27) | 12.2 (#46) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.70 (#25) | 2.65 (#28) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.57 (#18) | 2.87 (#40) |
| RPI | 0.618 (#12) | 0.556 (#69) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMC | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 39.4 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 14.1 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.59 | 1.35 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 40.5% | 32.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 25.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.2% | 52.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 75.1% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.7% | 28.1% |
Game Analysis
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