Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSB -17.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | UCSB -1600 UNA +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCSB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSB +18 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | UCSB -9.8 (+8.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.4 (+27.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSB -8.0 (+10.0) | 137.1 (+22.9) | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSB -10.1 (+7.9) | 133.9 (+26.1) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSB -6.9 (+11.1) | 136.2 (+23.8) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCSB -6.9 (+11.1) | 136.4 (+23.6) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCSB | UNA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 10-8 |
| Home | 12-3 | 9-4 |
| Away | 10-4 | 8-10 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.3 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.0 | 76.5 |
| Massey | -1.2 (#199) | -3.9 (#242) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.46 (#217) | -0.46 (#218) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.84 (#214) | -1.81 (#264) |
| RPI | 0.331 (#341) | 0.356 (#323) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCSB | UNA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.6% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 25.0% | 36.9% |
| REB / G | 40.3 | 40.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.3% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 31.7% | 26.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 14.5% |
| DRB% | 84.2% | 74.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.7% | 30.7% |
Game Analysis
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