Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 125.5 Over |
| Money | VILL -125 ISU +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ISU +2 | 160 | Lost |
| Massey | ISU -10.5 (+8.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 122.9 (+37.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 19% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ISU -6.3 (+4.3) | 129.8 (+30.2) | 21% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ISU -7.7 (+5.7) | 125.9 (+34.1) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ISU -6.8 (+4.8) | 130.6 (+29.4) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ISU -6.8 (+4.8) | 129.2 (+30.8) | 20% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VILL | ISU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 9-9 |
| Home | 10-4 | 13-3 |
| Away | 5-9 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 3-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 67.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.7 | 62.6 |
| Massey | 2.2 (#137) | 12.7 (#22) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.97 (#259) | 0.51 (#141) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.22 (#240) | 0.58 (#149) |
| RPI | 0.444 (#241) | 0.432 (#257) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VILL | ISU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.8% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 26.9% |
| REB / G | 29.0 | 41.0 |
| OREB / G | 5.2 | 16.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.7% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 13.7% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 19.1% | 43.0% |
| FT Rate | 29.9% | 19.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 38.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 35.9% |
| DRB% | 75.4% | 78.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.2% | 28.9% |
Game Analysis
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