Betting Lines
| Spread | TENN -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | USC +310 TENN -450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TENN +7 | 139 | Lost |
| Massey | TENN -9.1 (+2.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.8 (+6.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TENN -5.8 (-1.2) | 140.5 (-1.5) | 25% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TENN -8.1 (+1.1) | 137.7 (+1.3) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TENN -6.0 (-1.0) | 136.0 (+3.0) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TENN -5.0 (-2.0) | 136.4 (+2.6) | 25% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USC | TENN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 25-11 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 11-7 |
| Home | 15-2 | 14-2 |
| Away | 5-5 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 7-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 70.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.4 | 57.9 |
| Massey | 0.5 (#170) | 9.7 (#39) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.41 (#149) | 0.33 (#156) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.14 (#171) | 1.05 (#126) |
| RPI | 0.508 (#168) | 0.529 (#143) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USC | TENN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.8% | 37.3% |
| 3PT% | 28.9% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 38.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 13.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 46.3% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 27.7% | 34.7% |
| FT Rate | 31.3% | 32.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.9% | 42.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 27.6% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 75.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.1% | 30.4% |
Game Analysis
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