Betting Lines
| Spread | NOLA -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | NOLA -500 IUIN +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NOLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NOLA +3 | 171 | Won |
| Massey | NOLA -11.6 (-8.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.6 (+33.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NOLA -5.8 (-2.8) | 137.6 (+33.4) | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NOLA -7.3 (-4.3) | 138.5 (+32.5) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NOLA -6.1 (-3.1) | 137.1 (+33.9) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NOLA -6.9 (-3.9) | 137.9 (+33.1) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NOLA | IUIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 5-27 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 2-18 |
| Home | 6-9 | 4-9 |
| Away | 4-10 | 0-15 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-3 | 0-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.2 | 65.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.1 | 78.6 |
| Massey | -12.1 (#349) | -16.6 (#360) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.65 (#342) | -2.07 (#320) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.25 (#345) | -3.53 (#332) |
| RPI | 0.431 (#258) | 0.424 (#270) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NOLA | IUIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.8% | 35.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 19.0% |
| REB / G | 31.3 | 27.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.53 | 0.40 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.3% | 38.3% |
| TOV% | 29.5% | 23.5% |
| ORB% | 22.9% | 26.5% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 17.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.1% | 60.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 21.5% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 66.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.5% | 33.7% |
Game Analysis
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