Betting Lines
| Spread | MIZ -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | MIZ -900 CCU +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIZ +38 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | MIZ -16.7 (+21.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.6 (-24.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MIZ -20.3 (+17.7) | 156.9 (-16.9) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIZ -22.5 (+15.5) | 151.5 (-11.5) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIZ -15.9 (+22.1) | 155.2 (-15.2) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIZ | CCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 5-13 |
| Home | 16-3 | 8-8 |
| Away | 5-5 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.9 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.4 | 77.3 |
| Massey | 6.4 (#73) | -3.1 (#230) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.02 (#52) | -1.58 (#291) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.08 (#57) | -2.23 (#280) |
| RPI | 0.593 (#68) | 0.158 (#362) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIZ | CCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.7% | 49.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 20.0% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 40.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.67 | 0.54 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.2% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 34.7% | 43.3% |
| FT Rate | 19.5% | 33.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 57.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 27.4% | 10.4% |
| DRB% | 63.2% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.5% | 9.4% |
Game Analysis
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