Betting Lines
| Spread | AUB -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | NU +210 AUB -200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AUB +1 | 85 | Lost |
| Massey | NU -1.8 (-2.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 122.7 (-37.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NU -0.8 (-1.8) | 128.8 (-43.8) | 46% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AUB -0.2 (-0.8) | 126.7 (-41.7) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NU -1.5 (-2.5) | 128.7 (-43.7) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NU -1.0 (-2.0) | 127.5 (-42.5) | 45% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NU | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 10-8 |
| Home | 13-5 | 14-2 |
| Away | 7-4 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.7 | 72.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.8 | 67.7 |
| Massey | 9.0 (#43) | 7.2 (#65) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.79 (#20) | 1.76 (#63) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.17 (#24) | 2.74 (#70) |
| RPI | 0.631 (#45) | 0.576 (#85) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NU | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.7% | 28.2% |
| REB / G | 41.2 | 42.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 16.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 32.1% | 44.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 26.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 39.9% | 41.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.2% | 23.5% |
| DRB% | 77.0% | 65.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.0% | 16.9% |
Game Analysis
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