Betting Lines
| Spread | XAV -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | XAV -133 FLA +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | XAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | XAV +7 | 173 | Won |
| Massey | XAV -0.5 (+6.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.4 (+14.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 39% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FLA -1.3 (+8.3) | 156.3 (+16.7) | 48% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | XAV -0.2 (+6.8) | 154.4 (+18.6) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FLA -0.3 (+7.3) | 154.2 (+18.8) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FLA -0.5 (+7.5) | 153.7 (+19.3) | 45% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 20, 2022 | XAV 72 – 56 FLA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | XAV | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-10 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 9-9 |
| Home | 15-2 | 10-6 |
| Away | 7-4 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.9 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.1 | 68.6 |
| Massey | 6.7 (#69) | 6.2 (#76) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.18 (#168) | 0.64 (#127) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.84 (#138) | 1.32 (#114) |
| RPI | 0.471 (#215) | 0.506 (#172) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | XAV | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 52.4% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 44.3% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 42.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.52 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.2% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 38.1% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 29.2% | 31.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 45.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 67.8% | 80.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 15.1% |
Game Analysis
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