Betting Lines
| Spread | XAV -3.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.0 Under |
| Money | XAV -155 FLA +135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | XAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | XAV +16 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | XAV -3.0 (+13.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.9 (-13.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | XAV -4.0 (+12.0) | 146.6 (-18.6) | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | XAV -3.3 (+12.7) | 145.4 (-17.4) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | XAV -4.0 (+12.0) | 147.1 (-19.1) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | XAV -4.5 (+11.5) | 148.6 (-20.6) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 24, 2022 | XAV 90 – 83 FLA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | XAV | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 8-11 | 9-9 |
| Home | 16-5 | 13-5 |
| Away | 4-6 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | W5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 70.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.2 | 66.5 |
| Massey | 10.4 (#44) | 10.2 (#46) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.98 (#45) | 1.66 (#61) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.29 (#50) | 1.88 (#66) |
| RPI | 0.557 (#69) | 0.546 (#81) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | XAV | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 30.7% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 25.1% | 25.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 21.7% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 67.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.0% | 20.9% |
Game Analysis
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