Betting Lines
| Spread | DUQ -19.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | DUQ -2500 ALST +1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUQ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUQ +18 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | DUQ -24.9 (-6.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.7 (-21.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUQ -21.5 (-3.5) | 152.4 (-20.4) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUQ -16.9 (+1.1) | 153.1 (-21.1) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUQ -17.2 (+0.8) | 151.2 (-19.2) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUQ -21.6 (-3.6) | 152.5 (-20.5) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUQ | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 8-23 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 6-12 |
| Home | 16-4 | 5-5 |
| Away | 3-7 | 2-18 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L3 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 62.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 72.5 |
| Massey | 2.2 (#136) | -15.5 (#357) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.16 (#94) | -1.65 (#298) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.96 (#87) | -2.45 (#291) |
| RPI | 0.536 (#131) | 0.433 (#255) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUQ | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.4% | 33.2% |
| 3PT% | 38.0% | 30.5% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 14.2 | 13.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.4% | 37.5% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 37.0% | 28.9% |
| FT Rate | 13.5% | 14.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 58.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 67.4% | 63.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.0% | 27.2% |
Game Analysis
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