Betting Lines
| Spread | FGCU -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
| Money | KC +175 FGCU -163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | KC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FGCU +14 | 132 | Lost |
| Massey | FGCU -2.9 (-11.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.3 (+4.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FGCU -4.6 (-9.4) | 133.0 (-1.0) | 30% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FGCU -2.1 (-11.9) | 131.9 (+0.1) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FGCU -1.3 (-12.7) | 131.7 (+0.3) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FGCU -2.5 (-11.5) | 132.9 (-0.9) | 39% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | KC | FGCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 7-11 |
| Home | 6-8 | 8-5 |
| Away | 3-11 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.0 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.5 | 69.7 |
| Massey | 1.7 (#148) | 4.7 (#87) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.18 (#43) | 1.37 (#81) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.46 (#44) | 2.09 (#83) |
| RPI | 0.703 (#11) | 0.583 (#75) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | KC | FGCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.4% | 40.1% |
| 3PT% | 23.1% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.53 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.3% | 47.7% |
| TOV% | 24.7% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 34.3% | 30.7% |
| FT Rate | 29.9% | 26.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 65.9% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.0% | 27.6% |
Game Analysis
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