Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | PORT +700 UNC -1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PORT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +8 | 170 | Lost |
| Massey | UNC -2.0 (-6.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.7 (+20.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 15% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 7% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -1.8 (-6.2) | 149.3 (+20.7) | 42% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -3.3 (-4.7) | 148.3 (+21.7) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -2.0 (-6.0) | 145.9 (+24.1) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -2.1 (-5.9) | 146.5 (+23.5) | 44% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PORT | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 11-9 |
| Home | 10-6 | 12-3 |
| Away | 2-10 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.7 | 76.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.1 | 70.9 |
| Massey | 6.2 (#77) | 8.2 (#56) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.98 (#105) | 2.76 (#22) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.77 (#93) | 4.41 (#19) |
| RPI | 0.556 (#107) | 0.690 (#17) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PORT | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 47.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.7% | 28.7% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 38.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 22.3% | 13.7% |
| ORB% | 29.0% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 39.0% | 37.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 44.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.3% | 15.2% |
Game Analysis
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