Betting Lines
| Spread | CIN -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Over |
| Money | CIN -225 LOU +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CIN +19 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | CIN -9.2 (+9.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.1 (+9.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CIN -8.3 (+10.7) | 133.8 (+9.2) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CIN -8.2 (+10.8) | 136.8 (+6.2) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CIN -8.4 (+10.6) | 137.3 (+5.7) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CIN -9.8 (+9.2) | 134.8 (+8.2) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 21, 2025 | LOU 74 – 64 CIN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CIN | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 4-28 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 2-18 |
| Home | 16-3 | 4-13 |
| Away | 5-7 | 0-11 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.5 | 63.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 75.8 |
| Massey | -2.8 (#227) | -12.0 (#348) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.51 (#224) | -4.16 (#362) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.01 (#228) | -4.83 (#353) |
| RPI | 0.491 (#194) | 0.342 (#336) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CIN | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.8% | 38.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 30.6% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 13.4 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 0.40 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.1% | 44.8% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 26.2% |
| ORB% | 34.5% | 24.4% |
| FT Rate | 19.3% | 26.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.4% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 75.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.5% | 24.5% |
Game Analysis
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