Betting Lines
| Spread | LOU -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 163.5 Under |
| Money | CIN +360 LOU -500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LOU +10 | 138 | Lost |
| Massey | LOU -8.0 (-2.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.1 (-25.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LOU -1.8 (-8.2) | 156.9 (-18.9) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LOU -2.1 (-7.9) | 148.9 (-10.9) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LOU -0.6 (-9.4) | 149.2 (-11.2) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LOU -1.0 (-9.0) | 151.8 (-13.8) | 34% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 24, 2022 | CIN 81 – 62 LOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CIN | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 11-7 |
| Home | 15-3 | 15-2 |
| Away | 2-8 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 4-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.1 | 84.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.6 | 72.5 |
| Massey | 6.4 (#82) | 14.3 (#19) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.24 (#31) | 1.45 (#84) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.48 (#29) | 2.28 (#82) |
| RPI | 0.640 (#36) | 0.517 (#163) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CIN | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 50.0% |
| 3PT% | 29.9% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 41.2 | 44.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 14.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 2.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 59.6% |
| TOV% | 20.9% | 14.0% |
| ORB% | 28.4% | 37.7% |
| FT Rate | 33.9% | 35.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.2% | 45.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.1% | 22.0% |
| DRB% | 77.8% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.7% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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