Somehow I stayed thin, while the other guys got fat "Rush" - Big Audio Dynamite
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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33–16 on winners spread MAE 10.2 49 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Memphis @ Seton Hall +2.4 130.4 59% 69–70 ✓
UConn @ Oregon -7.7 138.6 24% 83–59 ✓
Purdue @ West Virginia +5.4 131.8 69% 80–68 ✗
Fresno State @ Vanderbilt +10.7 131.1 83% 59–67 ✓
Alabama @ Michigan State -12.3 140.9 13% 81–70 ✓
Washington @ Saint Mary's +18.0 123.4 95% 68–64 ✗
Portland State @ Gonzaga +2.8 170.3 60% 78–102 ✓
Siena @ Ole Miss +6.2 141.2 71% 62–74 ✓
Southern @ Loyola Maryland -13.7 141.8 11% 76–58 ✓
Ball State @ Vermont -6.4 134.0 28% 73–78 ✗
Jackson State @ Indiana +26.0 148.9 99% 51–90 ✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ Alcorn State -1.8 120.9 43% 54–62 ✗
USC @ Wisconsin +2.7 124.9 60% 59–64 ✓
Texas A&M @ DePaul +8.4 149.2 78% 82–66 ✗
South Dakota State @ Valparaiso -12.0 145.9 14% 61–50 ✓
Florida State @ Stanford +9.5 138.3 80% 60–70 ✓
Stephen F. Austin @ Quinnipiac -2.1 161.4 42% 44–58 ✗
San Francisco @ Davidson +2.7 143.5 60% 80–89 ✓
Utah Tech @ North Dakota -1.2 152.6 46% 52–67 ✗
St. Francis Brooklyn @ South Florida +16.2 123.6 93% 60–75 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ Ohio +17.5 128.1 94% 67–78 ✓
Delaware @ Colgate +10.3 166.3 82% 72–68 ✗
Loyola Chicago @ Harvard +14.7 133.2 91% 55–61 ✓
Cornell @ Monmouth -6.1 151.2 29% 81–63 ✓
UL Monroe @ Omaha +8.4 146.1 78% 56–63 ✓
UNC Wilmington @ Missouri State +13.5 127.2 89% 68–54 ✗
Louisiana Tech @ Samford +13.6 136.7 89% 79–76 ✗
Denver @ LSU New Orleans -5.8 155.8 30% 77–76 ✓
Portland @ Villanova -1.3 149.7 45% 83–71 ✓
Bellarmine @ Loyola Marymount +11.9 150.3 86% 59–80 ✓
Duke @ Xavier -6.4 144.1 28% 71–64 ✓
BYU @ Dayton +1.1 124.8 54% 79–75 ✗
Coppin State @ Maryland +25.5 152.2 99% 79–95 ✓
Fairfield @ Towson +10.8 123.4 84% 74–69 ✗
Detroit Mercy @ Washington State +8.2 146.4 77% 54–96 ✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ UTEP +0.8 148.2 53% 67–72 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ South Carolina +8.4 142.9 78% 53–68 ✓
Notre Dame @ St. Bonaventure -0.9 144.2 47% 51–63 ✗
UNC Greensboro @ Montana State +8.0 128.7 77% 77–66 ✗
Hartford @ Pennsylvania +25.6 151.3 99% 55–75 ✓
North Carolina @ Iowa State +3.4 140.8 62% 65–70 ✓
Stony Brook @ Eastern Washington +7.1 127.1 74% 52–81 ✓
Nebraska @ Memphis +7.1 131.4 74% 61–73 ✓
San José State @ North Texas -4.3 117.8 35% 54–69 ✗
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Virginia +29.4 133.4 100% 45–72 ✓
IU Indianapolis @ The Citadel +7.9 137.0 76% 53–74 ✓
Dartmouth @ Incarnate Word -5.7 144.3 30% 64–69 ✗
Oregon State @ Florida +5.8 132.3 70% 68–81 ✓
Evansville @ South Alabama +10.2 125.8 82% 67–78 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.