Betting Lines
| Spread | VAN -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 126.5 Under |
| Money | VAN -200 FRES +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAN +8 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | VAN -9.6 (-1.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.0 (-5.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VAN -7.7 (+0.3) | 132.7 (-6.7) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VAN -7.9 (+0.1) | 129.3 (-3.3) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VAN -6.7 (+1.3) | 132.0 (-6.0) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VAN -7.1 (+0.9) | 133.0 (-7.0) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAN | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-15 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 6-12 |
| Home | 14-6 | 7-7 |
| Away | 5-6 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 63.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 66.0 |
| Massey | 2.8 (#125) | -6.8 (#291) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.06 (#176) | -2.73 (#341) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.18 (#166) | -4.35 (#347) |
| RPI | 0.556 (#103) | 0.377 (#316) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAN | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 39.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 24.3% |
| REB / G | 38.4 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 0.59 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 43.4% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 23.3% |
| ORB% | 27.9% | 25.5% |
| FT Rate | 12.7% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 43.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 78.1% | 66.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.6% | 24.1% |
Game Analysis
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