Betting Lines
| Spread | DEN -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | NOLA +170 DEN -163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NOLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DEN +1 | 153 | Lost |
| Massey | DEN -6.8 (+5.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.8 (-1.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 23% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 10% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DEN -6.9 (+5.9) | 149.1 (+3.9) | 23% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DEN -6.2 (+5.2) | 147.1 (+5.9) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DEN -6.1 (+5.1) | 150.7 (+2.3) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DEN -6.7 (+5.7) | 149.4 (+3.6) | 25% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NOLA | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 6-12 |
| Home | 6-9 | 9-5 |
| Away | 4-10 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.2 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.1 | 75.3 |
| Massey | -15.3 (#357) | -1.4 (#208) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.52 (#335) | 0.22 (#162) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.32 (#344) | -0.31 (#195) |
| RPI | 0.387 (#307) | 0.393 (#300) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NOLA | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 50.4% |
| 3PT% | 37.0% | 29.0% |
| REB / G | 30.8 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.71 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 54.0% |
| TOV% | 27.5% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 26.5% | 28.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 37.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 58.7% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.0% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 75.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.5% | 21.7% |
Game Analysis
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