Betting Lines
| Spread | DART -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | UIW +275 DART -300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UIW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UIW +5 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | DART -4.7 (+9.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.7 (-11.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 8% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DART -3.3 (+8.3) | 141.8 (-8.8) | 44% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DART -3.8 (+8.8) | 139.0 (-6.0) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DART -3.6 (+8.6) | 142.4 (-9.4) | 35% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DART -4.7 (+9.7) | 141.8 (-8.8) | 43% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UIW | DART |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-19 | 10-18 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 6-8 |
| Home | 7-7 | 7-5 |
| Away | 3-12 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 2-0 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-3 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.3 | 68.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.1 | 74.4 |
| Massey | -10.7 (#335) | -6.0 (#280) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.79 (#359) | -1.35 (#275) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -6.62 (#362) | -1.78 (#262) |
| RPI | 0.356 (#330) | 0.498 (#185) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UIW | DART |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.1% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 38.0% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 28.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 6.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.4% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 23.9% | 22.6% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 20.0% |
| FT Rate | 8.2% | 19.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 57.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 67.4% | 67.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 36.1% | 23.7% |
Game Analysis
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