Betting Lines
| Spread | FLA -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | FLA -1000 ORST +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FLA +13 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | FLA -6.6 (+6.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.6 (+15.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FLA -4.8 (+8.2) | 139.9 (+9.1) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FLA -6.9 (+6.1) | 137.5 (+11.5) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FLA -4.4 (+8.6) | 135.9 (+13.1) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FLA -4.4 (+8.6) | 137.6 (+11.4) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FLA | ORST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 5-15 |
| Home | 10-6 | 10-7 |
| Away | 4-7 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.2 | 60.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.6 | 67.0 |
| Massey | 4.0 (#99) | -2.6 (#223) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.07 (#174) | -0.96 (#252) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.50 (#155) | -1.00 (#222) |
| RPI | 0.491 (#191) | 0.375 (#318) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FLA | ORST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 26.5% |
| REB / G | 41.0 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 0.57 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 48.2% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 22.1% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 25.0% |
| FT Rate | 24.8% | 33.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 40.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 79.3% | 66.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.7% | 25.7% |
Game Analysis
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