Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | MSU +170 ALA -225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +11 | 151 | Lost |
| Massey | ALA -11.9 (+0.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.9 (+11.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 31% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -6.2 (-4.8) | 144.1 (+6.9) | 24% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALA -7.2 (-3.8) | 146.1 (+4.9) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALA -6.3 (-4.7) | 141.4 (+9.6) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -5.7 (-5.3) | 141.5 (+9.5) | 22% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSU | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 31-6 |
| Conference | 11-8 | 16-2 |
| Home | 12-2 | 15-0 |
| Away | 4-7 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 7-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 4-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.9 | 81.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.9 | 68.3 |
| Massey | 7.7 (#62) | 19.6 (#2) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.11 (#101) | 1.91 (#56) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.83 (#64) | 2.98 (#61) |
| RPI | 0.591 (#72) | 0.594 (#70) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSU | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.8% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 56.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 19.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 23.1% |
| ORB% | 30.3% | 48.1% |
| FT Rate | 21.2% | 29.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.7% | 35.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 77.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
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